Brazil kickoff their Olympic campaign in Brasília on Thursday evening, when they take on South Africa. Brazil have opted to take the competition very seriously, having never before landed an Olympic gold medal for football. That, along with the fact that the tournament is taking place on home soil, persuaded the CBF to rest Neymar from June’s Copa América, so that he could play as one of Brazil’s three over 23 slots in the 18 man squad.
Brazil tends to greatly value any competition that pits them against European teams and with the ghosts of the Maracanazo in 1950 and of “the 7-1” in Belo Horizonte two years ago, they will look to create happier memories as tournament hosts on this occasion. They were surprisingly beaten by Mexico at Wembley in the 2012 Olympic final and Brazil, coached by Rogerio Michale, are desperate to make amends this year.
Having been drawn in the same group as South Africa, Denmark and Iraq, Brazil ought to make light work of the group stage. Coming into contact with the likes of Germany and Argentina will truly test their gold medal credentials. They will be overwhelming favourites to overcome Owen da Gama’s South Africa side on Thursday. South Africa have only ever qualified for one Olympic tournament, back in 2000 in Sydney. They qualified on this occasion by dint of finishing third in the 2015 U-23 African Cup of Nations.
Brazil’s squad contains a cornucopia of attacking talent, with exciting trio Gabriel Barbosa, Gabriel Jesús and Neymar set to play in an interchangeable, fluid front three. This trio is very likely to feature together for the senior side in the near future and captain Neymar will be charged with speeding the integration of the two young Gabriels. All three are capable of playing all across the front line, but in the 2-0 friendly victory over Japan, Rogerio started with the trio in the positions they most commonly occupy for their clubs.
Gabigol started from the right, where he can cut in onto his uncompromising left foot. Gabriel Jesús, who has just signed for Manchester City, through the middle and Neymar on the left. But the three swapped constantly during the game. Indeed, Gabriel Barbosa’s goal came as a result of a powering run through the centre of the pitch. Brazil can even call for Grêmio’s Luan- one of the best attackers in the Brasileirão- from the bench should they need to. Luan can also play all across the front line or as a number 10.
The number 10 role will likely be inhabited by Felipe Anderson, who led Japan a merry dance from a free role on Saturday. Indeed, Rogerio has experimented with a 4-2-4 shape in training and he gave it a 15 minute trial in Saturday’s friendly match in Goiânia. However, this will probably be a “break glass in case of emergency” system, reserved for when Brazil need goals. That fate should not really befall them in this group stage.
Behind this coruscating attack, the rest of the team will be responsible for keeping defensive shape and supplying the attackers with the ball. One would think that South Africa will adopt a very defensive stance and opt to crowd the Seleção attack out with numbers in defence. The likes of Rafinha in central midfield will become very important, he will be the main distributor from deep positions. Likewise, Renato Augusto will play a slightly deeper role in midfield than he is accustomed to. Rogerio is likely to play him as a volante due to his experience, as one of the team’s three over 23 players, but also because of his passing range. He should not be called upon to do too much defensive work, his main job will be to pass through the lines for Felipe Anderson.
With space likely to be at a premium, Brazil’s full-backs could be important, especially as Gabigol and Neymar are likely to drift in from the flanks to create a tight forward 3. Douglas Santos at left-back and Zeca at right-back are rangy full-backs more than capable of creating overloads and both have the technical ability to combine with their wingers. Douglas Santos is accustomed to playing behind Robinho at Atlético Mineiro, who wanders in field constantly.
At centre half, Rodrigo Caio is a commanding presence, equally adept at playing in midfield and his ball distribution skills will come in handy. Equally, Marquinhos is a cultured defender more than capable of playing out from the back. Atlético Paranaense’s Weverton will play in goal after 38 year old Palmeiras stopper Fernando Prass fractured his elbow on the eve of the tournament. It seems strange to say of a player without a single cap for his country, but Prass will be a big miss in the squad as a dose of sagacity in a young side.
He is the captain of Palmeiras and was selected, not just because of Brazil’s shortage of capable young goalkeepers (back-up goalie Uilson is third choice at Atlético Mineiro), but due to his leadership skills. It is incredibly unfortunate for Prass on a personal level that he is denied a first involvement with the Seleção at the age of 38. His replacement, Weverton, is not quite as experienced at the age of 29, but he likewise captains his club, Atlético Paranaense. Leadership is a quality that Rogerio has sought in all three of his overage players.
Brazil’s Olympic side defeated South Africa 3-1 in a friendly in Maceió back in March, and that Brazil side did not feature Neymar, Gabigol, Marquinhos, Rafinha or Renato Augusto. Rodrigo Caio and Felipe Anderson both scored headed goals from set pieces on that occasion, a weakness Brazil will look to capitalise on again on Thursday. They’ve no shortage of players capable of a good delivery and Marquinhos notched himself a headed goal from a corner against Japan on Saturday evening.
But all in all, it is difficult to see South Africa containing the irrepressible front 3 of Gabriel Jesús, Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar- especially with Felipe Anderson buzzing around behind them. Brazil are significantly stronger than their opponents and playing on home soil. South Africa may look to hit Brazil early, in case there are any early jitters in this young Seleção squad. But Rogerio’s men ought to look at setting down a marker for the tournament and for the group with a convincing victory. Certainly the Seleção Olimpica looks more exciting than its senior equivalent.
My prediction: 3-0 Brazil (Neymar x2, Felipe Anderson).
Predicted line-up: 1.WEVERTON (Atlético Paranaense), 2.ZECA (Santos), 3.RODRIGO CAIO (São Paulo), 4.MARQUINHOS (Paris Saint Germain), 6.DOUGLAS SANTOS (Atlético Mineiro), 5.RENATO AUGUSTO (Beijing Guoan), 8.RAFINHA (Barcelona), 17.FELIPE ANDERSON (Lazio), 9.GABRIEL BARBOSA (Santos), 11.GABRIEL JESUS (Manchester City), 10.NEYMAR (c) (Barcelona).
