Unlike other competitions, the Brasileirão is hard to predict, with a number of teams challenging for the trophy and the title race usually being wide open until the very end.
One of the things that makes the Brazilian league so attractive is precisely that surprise factor. While we’ve seen back-to-back champions in the last few years, not always those teams were expected to finish the season at the top.
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Palmeiras, for instance, ended up winning the title for the second straight year in 2023, but it was Botafogo who led the standings for much of the campaign.
And the latest champions show it’s also hard to predict how many points are needed to win the championship. Some winners had to make practically a perfect campaign, while others were favored by poor seasons from their opponents.
The last five Brasileirão champions
Flamengo – 2019
Mengão won the league in great fashion in 2019, finishing atop the table with an impressive 90 points, 16 clear of Santos and Palmeiras.
Flamengo – 2020
The 2020 season showed how tight the Brazilian league can be, with Flamengo finishing as leaders by just one point to celebrate their second consecutive success.
The Rubro-Negro even lost in their final match, but Internacional blew the opportunity to claim the title as they went winless in the last two rounds (D1 L1).
The Rio de Janeiro giants won the league with 71 points, just one clear of the Porto Alegre outfit.
O sorriso de quem vai em busca de mais taças com o @palmeiras!
📸 Rafael Arantes pic.twitter.com/yQjgm71Pga
— Brasileirão (@Brasileirao) January 16, 2024
Atlético Mineiro – 2021
Atlético Mineiro lifted the trophy thanks to a strong run in 2021, where they recorded 84 points. Flamengo were second with 71, but dropped many points in the last three matches (D1 L2).
Palmeiras – 2022
Palmeiras were dominant in 2022. Even with a defeat in the season finale, Alviverde’s 81 points were enough to see them finish way above Internacional (73).
Palmeiras – 2023
As we mentioned before, the 2023 season showed Brasileirão’s unpredictability at its fullest. Botafogo were in control of the standings for 31 rounds, leading with a 13-point advantage at some point.
But in a shocking turn of events, with one of the biggest twists not only in Brazilian league but in football history, the Lone Star went 11 games without victory and ended up finishing fifth.
Palmeiras capitalized on Fogão’s downfall, as they only needed 70 points to retain the title. Verdão even drew on Matchday 38, but it was enough to finish two points clear of Grêmio.
Predicting Brasileirão
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