Brazil begin their Copa América Centenário campaign tonight in the Pasadena Rose Bowl, the venue where Dunga lifted the World Cup as captain of the Seleção in 1994. Brazil play the toughest game in their group against an Ecuador side that sit second on goal difference in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying table after 6 games.
Ecuador began their qualifying campaign as South America’s form team, scoring an impressive 2-0 win in Buenos Aires on matchday 1. However, in their last double header in March, they were held to a draw by Paraguay and they were well beaten by Colombia in Bogota, which suggests their initial momentum might have slowed a little.
But make no mistake, Ecuador and Brazil are fully expected to qualify from this group, it’s merely a case of the order in which they qualify and tonight’s contest will have a huge bearing on who tops the group. The reward for finishing second is likely to be a tie against Colombia in the quarter-finals, which both teams will be keen to avoid.
Brazil’s preparations have been ravaged by injury, with a total of six withdrawals so far in Ricardo Oliveira, Edérson, Douglas Costa, Kaká, Rafinha and Luiz Gustavo all having pulled out. They are replaced by Jonas, Marcelo Grohe, Ganso, Lucas Moura and Walace all called up in their places. The latter won’t even arrive at the training camp in time for this match, whilst Ganso played for São Paulo in the Brasileirão on Wednesday evening.
It’s hardly ideal, but the players joining late are unlikely to be involved. Brazil will field Roma’s new stopper Alisson in goal. Dani Alves and Filipe Luis will be in the full-back slots. João Miranda is struggling with a calf problem, so PSG youngster Marquinhos is likely to partner Gil in central defence. Madrid’s Casemiro will be rewarded for his recent good form by starting as the midfield anchor.
Even prior to Luiz Gustavo’s withdrawal, Dunga was reportedly lining up with Casemiro in training. Either side of him will likely be the box to box presence of Elias, who will look to spring forward and support Jonas in attack. Renato Augusto holds the key to the midfield however. A consummate number eight, he is as good for a goal as he is a pass. He knits Brazil’s midfield together. Personally, I think it is a shame that Elias will likely start ahead of the silky smooth Lucas Lima.
Lima is looking for a move to Europe off the back of this competition and provides true creativity. Without him, the creative burden falls squarely on Philippe Coutinho, who will start from the left with license to move inside. He will have to be wary of the roving runs of Antonio Valencia on his flank. Ecuador’s strengths are no secret, with Jefferson Montero on the left and Antonio Valencia on the right, they play with pace and intensity through the flanks.
Casemiro will have his hands full looking after Juan Cazeres who has impressed on loan at Brazilian club Atlético Mineiro this season. West Ham’s Enner Valencia provides yet more pace in behind. The Seleção defence will have plenty to occupy them. Willian and Alves will be charged with pushing Montero back towards his own goal. But with Coutinho roving in from the left, Antonio Valencia is likely to get more joy attacking Brazil’s left flank. It will be a busy evening for Filipe Luis.
Benfica’s Jonas will start upfront, he provides excellent link play and s currently in the goalscoring form of his life, having notched 32 goals last season. He operates similarly to Robin van Persie in the number 9 role, adept at bringing others into play, but with a good nose for goal in the penalty area. Gabriel Barbosa and Hulk will be among the first to be called upon should Brazil struggle to crack Ecuador.
Gabriel and Hulk are both capable of playing centrally or from the left and Gabigol already has an excellent relationship with clubmate Lucas Lima. In the friendly against Panama, Dunga experimented with a 4-4-2 for 20 minutes or so, using Hulk as a partner for Jonas. In theory, Gabriel Barbosa could also play this role if called upon. Lucas Moura provides a more traditional wing option if required, he is the closest equivalent to the injured Douglas Costa in the squad.
What is interesting is that Dunga has not replaced like for like, with Neymar and Douglas Costa unavailable. Neymar ordinarily plays as a false 9 in the Seleção front three, but he will be supplanted by the more traditional centre forward qualities of Jonas. Douglas Costa is a touchline hugging, full-back taunting winger with a penchant for a whipped cross. Yet he is going to be replaced by Philippe Coutinho, a number 10 usually, who will be given license to drift inside.
Both teams will be well aware that this game will go a long way to deciding who tops this group. But with it being the first game, I am expecting a slightly cagey encounter and a score draw. Both sides have only been able to squeeze one warm-up game into their compacted pre-tournament schedules, which hardly creates a favourable environment for this game. Expect both sides to look a little rusty and like they are feeling their way into this tournament.
Prediction: 1-1.
Predicted Brazil line-up: 1.ALISSON; 2.DANI ALVES, 13.MARQUINHOS, 4.GIL, 6.FILIPE LUIS; 5.CASEMIRO, 8.ELIAS, 18,RENATO AUGUSTO; 19.WILLIAN, 22.PHILIPPE COUTINHO; 9.JONAS
