With the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying group table compressing, it is vital that Brazil stay on track with a win against Paraguay in Asuncion. A victory could see the Seleção climb to second, a defeat and the wrong combination of results could see them drop to seventh in the league with six qualifiers played.
Paraguay will be no pushovers. Brazil have not won in Asuncion for 31 years and La Albirroja eliminated the Seleção from the 2011 and 2015 editions of Copa América- both times on penalties. The visitors will also be without their talisman Neymar. The Barcelona man has more yellow cards than goals in a Brazil shirt since the beginning of 2015 and he will serve another suspension.
Santos’ grizzled bulldozer Ricardo Oliveira will replace him, bringing a more traditional, if less mobile centre forward to the line up. He will certainly look to feed on the silver service provided by Willian and Douglas Costa on either side of him. The creative burden behind them will fall on Renato Augusto, who has scored in his last two appearances for Brazil now.
The suspension of David Luiz offers less of a headache for Dunga. In fact, if anything it probably removes a significant dilemma. Luiz was culpable for both of Uruguay’s goals in Recife on Friday and almost gifted Suarez a winner at the death with a poor defensive header. Luiz was booked, so will be replaced by Gil in this match.
One wonders if Dunga ought to start making contingency plans and select Marquinhos instead. Luiz was dropped by Dunga after a costly error in Brazil’s Copa América opener against Peru last June and briefly lost his place as a result. Luiz has put in a series of questionable displays at the heart of Brazil’s defence of late, causing many back home to demand his removal from the squad.
That Dunga was so willing to drop him during the Copa América last year reveals that the manager does have his doubts over Luiz’s error prone tendencies. Since his PSG teammate Thiago Silva was deposed, Luiz has struggled badly in the canary shirt. Miranda is a good centre half, but not as good as Thiago Silva and he doesn’t seem to gel with David Luiz at all.
If Dunga is to continue Thiago’s exile, it is difficult to see any justification for the continued selection of Luiz. His suspension relieves the manager of a potentially awkward situation- for now. Gil recently moved to Shandong Luneng and Dunga has already voiced his concern over the international futures of Brazilians that have moved to the Chinese Superleague, at 21 Marquinhos is the future, but Dunga knows his short term concerns- qualification points- are pressing.
In pre match press conferences, several Brazil players have cited Paraguay’s counter attacking qualities, they will expect La Albirroja to sit deep and contain Brazil, before springing counter attacks. Paraguay loosely play in a 4-4-2 shape, which can morph into a 4-4-1-1 when they cede possession. Brazil will rely heavily on Costa and Willian to provide the creative spark, with Neymar suspended and Lucas Lima likely to be on the bench.
Predicted score: 2-1 Brazil
Predicted line up: ALISSON, DANI ALVES, MIRANDA (c), GIL, FILIPE LUIS, FERNANDINHO, LUIZ GUSTAVO, RENATO AUGUSTO, WILLIAN, DOUGLAS COSTA, RICARDO OLIVEIRA.
