Serie A focus: Who is close to being champion and falling in the last four rounds of elite Brazilian football

Only two clubs have a mathematical chance of winning the title

The Campeonato Brasileiro da Série A is the main football competition in the country, and has officially had 64 editions completed since 1959. The current edition – 65th – has been played since May 29, 2021 and ends in the 38th round, scheduled for 9th of December.

34 out of 38 competition rounds have already been played. And, at the moment, Atlético-MG is the leader with a large advantage, very close to becoming champion. Flamengo, vice-leader, is trying to reverse this situation, which is becoming practically impossible, ahead of the last four matches that lie ahead. The miners have an eight-point advantage.

The four clubs that occupy the four worst positions in Brasileirão – the famous “Z4” – and which at that time would be relegated to Serie B are Chapecoense (already relegated mathematically), Sport, Grêmio and Bahia.

The six clubs that would qualify for the Copa Sudamericana, for being in the middle of the table, are Ceará, Internacional, América-MG, Santos, Cuiabá and São Paulo.
The table below shows the current status of Serie A clubs after the close of the 34th round on November 21:

Position

Club

Points

Games Played

1 Atlético-MG 74 34
2 Flamengo 66 34
3 Palmeiras 58 35
4 Corinthians 53 34
5 Fortaleza 52 35
6 Bragantino 52 34
7 Fluminense 48 35
8 Internacional 47 35
9 Ceará 46 35
10 América-MG 45 34
11 Cuiabá 43 34
12 Santos 42 35
13 Athletico-PR 42 34
14 São Paulo 42 34
15 Atlético-GO 40 34
16 Juventude 39 34
17 Bahia 37 33
18 Grêmio 35 34
19 Sport 33 34
20 Chapecoense 15 34

Some teams have different number of games due to the postponement of matches because of the Brazilian national team’s matches. The CBF promises to rectify the situation by December 3rd, when the 35th round comes to an end.

Mathematics in the field in Brasileirão

The mathematics department at the Federal University of Minas (UFMG) does the math to know the probability of each team being champion and being relegated to “secondary”. The fight for the title was only between Atlético-MG and Flamengo in the last four rounds, as no other club has more chances to reach the number one position in the competition. According to the university, Rooster has a 99.25% chance of confirming the title, while Vulture has only 0.75%.

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Pedro Souza/Atlético-MG

The fight against relegation is hard. Only Chapecoense is 100% relegated and has no chance of survival. The other three clubs with more mathematical chances are Sport (98.8%), Grêmio (87.1%) and Bahia (47.6%). Juventude and Atlético-GO are the two most threatened clubs outside the “sticking zone” at the moment, with 28.4% and 20.2% respectively.

Série A Numbers

See in the list below some of the numbers and top stats of the Brazilian Championship so far:

  • Best attack: Flamengo (66 goals);
  • Best defense: Atlético-MG (24 goals);
  • Worst attack: Sport (21 goals);
  • Worst defense: Chapecoense (59 goals);
  • Top scorer: Atlético-MG Hulk (15 goals);
  • More assists: Gustavo Scarpa do Palmeiras (13 passes for goal);
  • Largest audience: Atlético-MG 2×0 Juventude, for the 34th round on 11/20 (61 thousand people);
  • Smallest audience: América-MG 2×1 Palmeiras, for the 24th round on 06/10 (617 people);
  • More change of technicians: Bahia, América-MG, Grêmio and Chapecoense (2 changes).

Serie A Historical Numbers

The Serie A of the Brazilian Championship has been played since 1959. We are in the 65th edition in 2021, being the 19th in the current format (dispute for consecutive points). See in the list below some numbers and historical facts of this disputed competition:

  • Biggest champion: Palmeiras (10 times);
  • Largest audience: Flamengo 3×0 Santos in 1983 (155 thousand people);
  • Smallest audience: 2×1 Portuguese Youth in 1997 (55 people);
  • Player with the most goals: Roberto Dinamite, former Vasco player (190 goals);
  • Player with the most games: Fábio, current Cruzeiro goalkeeper (596 games);
  • Greatest invincibility: Flamengo in 2019 (24 matches);
  • Club with the most points, all editions added together: São Paulo (2,213 points);
  • Club that scored the most goals in all editions: Santos (2,250 goals);
  • Biggest rout: Corinthians 10×1 Tiradentes-PI in 1983.

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