State Competitions - Sao Paulo

[azantinge]

An interesting relegation battle looming over the last round of the first phase. Three clubs still either have a chance of escaping or falling. Botafogo of Ribeirao Preto currently occupies the final relegation spot. XC de Piracicaba have successfully exited the final four but will need to win or tie to assure their position at the top level and they are playing away in Mogi Mirim. Botafogo is at home against Guarani and needs to win. Portuguesa, surprisingly, will need to win to assure its place because in a tie on points with either Botafogo or XV de Piracicaba, it is the low team because of fewer victories and they are away to Mirassol. And with Mogi Mirim and Guarani already through to the next round, they may not be as much of a challenge as under normal circumstances. Guaratingueta is down.

Curious?

[Fred]

I am worried with Portuguesa. They will play the Brasileirão série A and seem not having a team to stay in the first division this year ..

[azantinge]

Portoguesa looks really weak. Away to Mirassol next weekend won't be easy. Here's a stat: Portuguesa has four wins in the Paulistao. They were against Comercial, Guaratingueta, Botafogo and XV de Piracicaba (probably at their weakest point in the competition). Again, even a draw isn't good enough if both Botafogo and XV de Piracicaba win.

XV de Piracicaba seems to have finally found some legs. Rafael Santos should be on any Serie A or B team in need of an improve defense. He has really upgraded XV's defense. That with Estavao Soares' three CB system. It would not surprise me if they beat a Mogi team looking ahead to the next phase.

Botafogo cannot be overlooked either especially at home. Still the probably relegation.


Ponte Preta hasn't impressed either. I thought they looked quite strong last year in Serie B. A very agressive team. If I had to guess right now, at least three of the promoted teams to Serie A will likely go straight back down.

[azantinge]

Well Portuguesa goes down. XV de Piracicaba and Botafogo return next year in the Paulistao. Others relegated are Guaratingueta, Catanduvense, and Comercial. I suspect there may be some off-field activity around Guaratingueta later this year. Just what? Who knows?

As for the next phase, it appears to set up for eventually two semifinals with the four big clubs participating. Mogi Mirim is capable of playing out of its mind but I doubt they can catch Santos napping.

On the other hand, Palmeiras is a club that really gives a sense that it could trip up if circumstances collide but Guarani also gives the sense that it could collapse at anytime without warning. Still it is most likely that Palmeiras will go through.

Corinthians and Sao Paulo should both be able to work their way through the next round.

On the other hand,

[azantinge]

Two surprises in the one-game quarterfinals.

The biggest has to be Ponte Preta beating Corinthians at the Pacaembu by a score of 3-2. This can only be explained as the dangers of a one-game elimination where a highly motivated underdog can win.

The second was the loss by Palmeiras in Campinas against Guarani by the same 3-2 score. While a surprise, the possibility was probably thought about before hand by some because Palmeiras has seemed to be a little unpredictable in this tournament.

The other two quarterfinal games saw the expected winners Santos and Sao Paulo go through against Mogi Mirim and Bragantino, respectively.

This sets up one semifinal match between Santos and Sao Paulo at Morumbi Stadium. That should be a well contested match. While clearly the home field of Sao Paulo FC, maybe less so that some might think. There are probably as many Santos fans in the Greater Sao Paulo area as there is in Santos (albeit substantially fewer than SP fans). In another one-game, winner takes all, it's anyone's game.

The second semifinal is a Campinas derby between Ponte Preta and Guarani in the Brinco de Ouro da Princesa, home field of Guarani. While more was expected of Ponte Preta in the first phase, they appeared to have come alive. At the same time, Guarani is a club that has done much more than expected (by me anyway). Again this is a one game semifinal and anyone can win.

If forced to pick a winner of each of the two closely contested semifinals, I would probably go with Sao Paulo and Ponte Preta.

In the case of Sao Paulo, it is less so because of the home field advantage or a thought that Lucas Moura will outshine Neymar. The primary reason for giving the Sao Paulo the slight edge is that I think it has the deeper roster which will give it the advantage later in the game. Nevertheless, this game is very close.

In leaning toward Ponte Preta, I sense they too have a better roster than Guarani. Guarani has a group of players that are playing well, but the sense is that there are some that are playing above their norm. Home field isn't a big advantage as both clubs will likely be well represented in the stands.

In the unique consolation competition that roughly translates to a competition for the countryside title, the one-game favourites would have to be the two losing quarter-finalists, Mogi Mirim and Bragantino.

[azantinge]

In a side note that probably applies to all clubs outside of the big 12-14 clubs, this is a point in the season where it becomes a challenge to protect your squad from big clubs taking your best players. This is especially a challenge of mid-tier clubs because they are more likely to have uncovered some attractive players during their runs in State competitions. In Sao Paulo, that is most likely to apply to Ponte Preta and Guarani but also to Bragantino, Guaratingueta, Portuguesa, and Sao Caetano; but others as well that are competing at the national level.

[jim]

São Caetano v São Paulo tonight.

I was reminded on Twitter that this game could feature both Ganso, and Rivaldo.

[Fred]

Yes, you are right .. Ganso is improving step by step .. Interesting to see him again this night ..

[jim]

Neymar ended his mini goal drought with a goal against Oeste, meanwhile Corinthians beat Sao Paulo to move well into the top 8 with goals from Jadson and a penalty from Pato. Harsh on Ceni who gave away the penalty as it could have been viewed as a 50-50 challenge, and the keeper ended up kicking the bottom of PAto's foot.