Copa Sao Paulo de Futebol Junior - 2013 Edition

[azantinge]

This competition should be interesting once again. With age group eligibility moving one year older, it adds another variable into the mix. With 100 teams going in, there will likely be some upsets as usual. But it's only a guess which favourites will fall. Time will tell.. More later.

[azantinge]

Games of the last round of the group phase should start to get more interesting today. It should not be assumed that the big clubs will be clear winners. After all, these are still 16-19 year olds and have all insecurities and unpredictability that this age group has generally. Great technical skill doesn't advance maturity much. In addition, many of the opponents to the big clubs are at home.

It is certain that the anxiety levels will be through the roof and as a consequence, some big clubs are likely to become the victims of the roulette wheel.

Most competitive third round games are likely to be:

Gremio Prudente - Gremio RS

Going in, I suspected that Gremio Prudente would be the strongest challenger to Gremio RS. Little did anyone know how strong Espigao of Rondonia would be. The Gremio kids need to win big against a team the has yet to allow a goal. With the facts that Gremio has already lost two preferred starters to red cards and Gremio Prudente being at home, it would seem Gremio has become the long shot to advance.

Linense - Atletico MG

Winner takes all in this game. Linense is at home and better than expected.

America SP - Flamengo RJ

This will be far more complicated than any Flamengo fan would have liked. It's not likely that Flamengo fans will be able of overwhelm America fans in their home stadium when Sao Jose do Rio Preto is more than 9 hours away from Rio. On top of that America SP was the winner of this tournament in 2006, the last time it was played as a U-20 tournament.

Uniao Sao Joao - Corinthians SP

This pits a SP underdog at home against the SP Big dog that every SP underdog wants to measure itself against. While Corinthians should win, this will be Uniao Sao Joao's final. After the draw against Piracicaba, a failure to win by Corinthians means elimination.

Audax SP - Bahia

This should be an excellent game. Both are very good teams. A draw will likely put both of them through.

Francana SP - CA Paranaense

Francana seems surprisingly good. CA Paranaense should win but teenage unpredictability could change that.

Desportivo Brasil - Avai

Group R seems to be the Group of Death. Not one team is the clear favourite. In the first two rounds, each team has won and lost. Desportivo Brasil has probably the best talent, but they are very young and at home. This one is a coin toss. A tie is not likely good enough.

Velo Clube - Fluminense RJ

Velo Clube seems surprisingly good. Fluminense needs a victory and should win but nothing is certain.

Gremio Osasco - Internacional

Danger lurks for Internacional. Another good game to watch. Germio Osasco have a solid academy and have assembled a very good team.

In this tournament, usually 7 points is enough for a best-of-the -rest qualifier. Six, however, gets tricky.

[azantinge]

Espigao – The Underdog of all Underdogs

If you enjoy watching the success of small clubs from far away places, there is not one greater example than the Copinha competitor, Esporte Clube Espigão, from the far northwestern State of Rondonia. If the club should win against the least successful club in its group on Sunday, it will highlight an amazing underdog story.

It is important to understand where this club comes from to truly appreciate its achievement. Esporte Clube Espigão comes from the rural municipality of Espigão d’Oeste in eastern part of the State of Rondonia. While it has a small urban centre, the municipality covers about 4,500 square kilometres with a population of fewer than 30,000. That is fewer than 7 people per square kilometre. Espigão d’Oeste is a mere 6 hours from the State capital of Porto Velho. Porto Velho has a massive population of 390,000. The whole State of Rondonia has a population of about 1.5 million. The following Youtube video, apparently produced by the municipality, provides a little feel for the place and also spends a moment at the club's field.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSAXQnSK9nA

To appreciate the challenge just to get to this tournament, the bus ride to Presidente Prudente from Espigão d’Oeste would be more than 22 hours of driving.

The greatest achievement for Esporte Clube Espigão has to be its 2-0 defeat of the team from one of Brazil's futebol giants, Gremio. The fact that the cliub has already played the two strongest teams in the group (Gremio and Gremio Prudente) and yet allowed a goal is also curious. To make things even more intriguing is the fact that most of their team are born in the State (might be 2 or 3 starters born outside of the State of Rondonia).

Without having been given the opportunity to watch the boys from Esporte Clube Espigão play, one can only speculate what their playing style might be. The game summary against Gremio appears to show that after Espigão scored its first goal at the end of the first half, Gremio's boys started to melt down. Two Gremio players were red carded, one for a challenge on an opponent and the other, later in the game, for a verbal attack on the referee.

If you had any doubts that boys from Espigão d’Oeste are tough enough to handle a larger opponent, the following video gives a hint of what some might do when not on the pitch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEic8P-_xxY

If Esporte Clube Espigão should win their game on Sunday, they are likely through to the next round. That would be a massive achievement for the boys from the wild west of Brazil.

[Fred]

Very good articles, Azatinge!
What is your favourites for this year? The most impressive team?

[azantinge]

Actually, I thought in terms, of all the teams I saw play, the one that will be absolutely deadly next year will be Desportivo Brasil. They are so young and yet came close to putting out probably the best team, Palmeiras, out. They were lacking maturity and discipline defensively but offensively they were fun to watch. Bruno Gomes is still just 16 and already as cool as a cucumber in attack.

[Fred]

I am surprised by Goias .. Is that related to a new managing team strategy? They will play the Serie A next year, they have very good young players .. A very good surprise for me!

[azantinge]

The Maturity Factor

Author, Malcolm Gladwell, spends a significant part of his book, Outliers, on the point that young athletes with birthdays early in the year have an important advantage in team sports with age groups defined by the calendar year. Using the same logic, it would suggest that a team in the Copa Sao Paulo de Futebol Junior (Copinha) would have a greater chance of success if it were to choose an older group of players. The Copinha, in 2013, allows players from birth years from 1993 to 1997. While there is likely to be the occasional exception, older players are likely to be more experienced, more mature, and physically larger. Even the younger exceptions would benefit from being surrounded by older teammates. It seems that might be the case in the Copinha after looking at this year's semi-finalists and some from clubs known to have selected a younger team.

It is clear that success sometimes is sacrificed for development in youth tournaments and the Copinha is no exception. While most supporters of a specific club will look only a wins and losses, some clubs are thinking more long term when it comes to a specific youth tournament. In considering this issue, I looked at the four remaining teams and compared their use of players with seven others that had were known to have other motivations in this tournament or had unexpected success or failure.

In fact, it is surprising just how different these teams are. Using information provided by the Sao Paulo federation that records the number of times a player dresses, the youngest two teams, Desportivo Brasil and Comercial each included 9 different players born in the birth years, 1995 & younger, with none of the semi-finalist using more than one. It remains to be seen if the teams for Desportivo Brasil and Comercial are kept together and re-entered next year; but, it is clear that both have the young talent to make noise in this tournament next year if they choose to do so.

In the end, it seems maturity is an important factor in success in this tournament. Palmeiras, the decided favourite in this tournament, has assembled an older but also includes five players with substantial senior team experience. Of the 23 different players it has dressed in this tournament, 13 were born in 1993 and only one was born in 1995 or younger with remaining 9 from 1994. The remaining three semi-finalists, Bahia, Goias, and Santos, also tended to have players from the birth years 1993 & 1994 with only Goias having one of their players younger than that.

Gremio Barueri also drew attention because they were abnormally weak this year compared to most years where they would normally advance to the second phase at least. This year they were unable to gain even a point. Gremio Barueri used only five older players with birth year, 1993, and used four players with birth year, 1995 or younger. While not as young as Comercial or Desportivo Brasil, Gremio Barueri was slightly younger than average and would have possibly done better if it had used a more mature team.

Also, in looking at two other surprise teams from Atibaia and Velo Clube, it would seem that they too leaned toward being a little older. Velo Clube, however, did dress 5 younger players but then offset that by dressing eleven over their games from birth year, 1993.

On the other hand, the teams of big clubs that fell at the first phase also suggest that maturity could have played a role. The winner of the Copa do Brasil at the Under 20, Vitoria, had a younger than average team with seven players born in 1995 or later; but offset that somewhat by having seven players born in 1993 as well. Flamengo doesn't fit as well as it was an older team than many but younger than the four semi-finalists. Flamengo had dressed four players born 1995 or later but also had 10 players born in 1993 that it used.

In the end, it may not be the sole reason for success or failure but it likely did influence the odds. There are clearly other factors that come into play as well. In addition to the talent on display, the maturity of a team may have simply reduced the uncertainties related to teenage emotions and in a tournament where a loss means exit, stability can be valuable.

Who will go through to the final? Maturity probably won't be much of a factor anymore since there is very little between the teams now.

[azantinge]

I am surprised by Goias .. Is that related to a new managing team strategy? They will play the Serie A next year, they have very good young players .. A very good surprise for me!

Goias surprised me a little too. I didn't expect them to get this far. I suspect it has a little to do with maturity and a little to do with being in Goiania (teenagers wanting to stay home if possible). I also suspect the age change benefited some teams and hurt others but it seems some teams held onto their 1993s more than others (Desportivo Brasil, Gremio Barueri, and Comercial are three I looked at).

[Fred]

We did not exchange too much about players .. What are for you guys the key players of this competition until now?

[christopheratkins]

Bahia are another who've been very impressive, or better than I personally expected.

As for standout players, from what I've seen: Diego Souza at Palmeiras, João Schmitt and Rodrigo Caio at São Paulo, Rayllan at Bahia and Corinthians' Leandro have all impressed