State Competitions - Sao Paulo

[christopheratkins]

Ha, no it is fine!

They are getting points for suggesting modifications to the player cards, each edit is worth 5 points. They are valued so highly because it is important for our data to be factually correct and up-to-date.

However, Art's posts are fantastic. I will suggest more weight is given to the forum, as my hope is that it becomes a hive of discussion

[azantinge]

Challengers and the falling

On the outside but dangerous

On the eve of the Paulistao, here are my thoughts on what to watch going in. First of all, it should be made clear again that the perennial favourites in this tournament are the big four, Corinthians, Sao Paulo FC, Palmeiras, and Santos. However, over the years there have been challenges from the outside from time to time. While rosters are likely to continue to evolve for some time yet, here are some thoughts on some of the likely challengers

Portuguesa: Portuguesa had the strongest team in Serie B last year and was promoted to the Brasileirao as Serie B champion. It seems to have kept many of its key players and added some additional pieces to the mix.

Ponte Preta: The club also promoted from Serie B to Serie A this year. Ponte Preta has picked up some quality players going in and should provide some strong competition for the big clubs.

XV de Piracicaba: I expect the roster of XV de Piracicaba to continue to strengthen. This is a club where I see growing financial strength allowing them to prevail. Even while some Brazilian publications have this club being one to be relegated, I suspect they will surprise.

Comercial: Comercial has added some key veterans to the base of last year’s team. While a long shot, I suspect they will be one of the surprises of this year’s Paulistao. Again, money talks.



In greatest danger of relegation

As I have mentioned in previous posts, predicting beyond the success of the big four and maybe the two promoted (to Serie A) teams, Portuguesa and Ponte Preta, is a throw of the dice. From what I’ve read in some publications in Brazil, some of my thoughts are counter to theirs.

Mirassol: While I’ve seen some publications list this team as one that will cause some trouble, I have little confidence in the players they have brought in. They can finish anywhere from the middle of the pack to the bottom of the table. I lean more toward the bottom.

Catanduvense: Simply not a strong team. I suspect one of the favourites for relegation.

Linense: In my view, this is another weak team and is likely to go down.

Guarani: Guarani, by some accounts, is considered a mid-table team. As a financial professional by day, I may put more weight on financial stability than most sports journalists. Guarani is a financial basket case. It has a trail of unpaid salaries that would have their directors in jail by now in some countries. Also, as someone who has watched some of the new hires last year, I have little confidence that they will be much help.

Ituano: Another team that seems to be relying on yesterday’s stars. I’m not impressed but I might be wrong.

Oeste: Any club that lists Val Baiano as one of their key signings in 2012 deserves to listed as a relegation candidate. Baiano has done nothing for two years now.

[christopheratkins]

A round-up of all the games on Matchday 1 can be found here - http://www.sambafoot.com/en/news/27870_campeonato_paulista__round_1_review.html

[azantinge]

Early success is not as critical for the big clubs; but for small ones, losses can start to multiply. Botafogo and Comercial both look like they could be examples of that. If you look at the rosters of both, neither should be as bad as they looked. Now Botafogo needs to play a quick and well-organized team from Piracicaba while Comercial needs to play a tough Paulista side on Wednesday. After that, they play one another. It is conceivable that one of these clubs could be without points after three rounds. That is big hole to dig out of for a smaller club.

As for the big clubs, it is much much too early to conclude anything.

On a different note, can a small club, without a place in national competitions, compete successfully in this tournament? Well, go no further than Guaratingueta in 2008, when they finished first in the first stage to qualify for the final four.

[azantinge]

The Paulista A1 has now completed six rounds. While it is still too early to clearly see where the quality lies, here are some observations.

The Big Four

Santos - Haven't seen much of their A squad; but their B squad is not going to win anything for them.

Palmeiras - Still a work in progress. Where would they be without Marcos Assuncao? At the same time, with time, they may be a candidate for the title.

Corinthians - Have faced only one club among the top 8 currently and that was a draw to Mogi Mirim. At this point, there is nothing to evaluate.

Sao Paulo - They look like they could be a challenger for the title; but their back line looks a little suspect. At the same time, if William Jose continues to score, it gives them a deadly and versative attack (William Jose providing the inside power threat and Lucas an others creatively attacking on the outside).

Surprisingly Better than Expected

Guarani - Has had some good results. However, this club is a ticking time bomb. I'm thinking that things could turn very quickly with this club. Give it six rounds more but it looks like they may do enough to stay up.

Mirassol - Again, the club seems to have found some hidden effective players. Time will tell if they can hold it together to stay in A1.

Linense - Like Mirassol, they seem to have put together a good enough team to stay above relegation. The next six rounds will tell the tale.


Surprisingly Weaker than Expected

Botafogo - While I didn't expect them to make waves in this competition, I also still expect them to avoid relegation. But this team appears to be one that is deceptively weaker and another six rounds should provide a better picture.

Guaratingueta - Like Botafogo, this club looks like it might have placed some bad bets on some players. It reminds me of Gremio Prudente (now Barueri) last year where they started slow and never got it going. Santo Andre, last year, would be another example.

Portuguesa - Time will tell

Wait and See:

XV de Piracicaba - Seems to me like a club that could still surprise many including some who should know better. While they've had some disappointing results, they haven't been beaten by more than one goal. I suspect that they may still end up in the top 8. The next six rounds will be important for them.

Comercial - Also seem to still be getting themselves sorted out. Six more rounds should reveal the real team, good or bad.

[azantinge]

For another interesting perspective on the Sao Paulo State leagues, here are the cumulative national rankings (compiled by the CBF) of all of the Paulistao clubs and some other clubs in lower State levels. The is listing below includes the cumulative national ranking followed by which level they play at nationally (or not) and the number of CBF points accumulated through history follow the name of the club.

Notice that Botafogo has the highest historical ranking among clubs not currently playing at the national level (Remo at 27 and Londrina at 34 are also clubs nationally currently not playing at the national level). XV de Piracicaba is another historically higher placed team that is not currently playing at the national level. It is also a reminder that clubs like Guarani and Portuguesa were top clubs at one time.

At the same time, the fact that Sao Caetano and Gremio Barueri are currently ranked in the cumulative historical rankings at 41 and 70 respectively while being relatively young clubs is by itself remarkable. Sao Caetano began playing professionally in 1990 and Gremio Barueri only began competing professionally in 2001.

The Paulistao (A1)

1 A Palmeiras SP 2366
2 A Santos SP 2358
6 A Corinthians SP 2197
9 A São Paulo SP 2109
16 B Guarani SP 1547
18 A Portuguesa Desp. SP 1446
25 A Ponte Preta SP 1087
36 B Bragantino SP 601
39 ** Botafogo SP 555
41 B São Caetano SP 520
56 ** XV de Piracicaba SP 314
66 ** Paulista SP 257
74 ** Mogi Mirim SP 189
82 ** Ituano SP 165
95 ** Comercial SP 112
107 B Guaratingueta SP 91
233 C Oeste SP 8
233 ** Mirassol SP 8
302 ** Catanduvense SP 2
360 ** Linense SP 1


Paulista A2

49 C Santo André SP 398
62 ** União São João SP 267
70 B Grêmio Barueri 208
83 ** São José SP 164
89 ** América SP 138
101 ** Ferroviária SP 99
113 ** Noroeste SP 77
138 ** 138 União Barbarense SP 44
166 ** Atl. Sorocaba SP 29


The full CBF Ranking, as of December 2011, is below:
http://www.cbf.com.br/media/229527/rank ... .12.11.pdf

[jim]

Corinthians - Botafogo tonight.

[azantinge]

With ten games gone, the renovations have begun at some teams that should have been able to do better.

XV de Piracicaba: While some fans are quick to dismiss them, it should be pointed out that the market value of the shirts sponsors that this club has may in fact exceed any of the big clubs in Brazil: Caterpillar, FMC, Raizen, EMS, Bonsucesso, and Nutriplus. Hyundai is also a sponsor of programs at the club. it should not be a surprise then that changes are happening with the team. Estevao Soares is now the Coach and new players are being brought in. It would seem to me that this has now become an exercise to satisfy the sponsors as much as it is to satisfy supporters. Why so many sponsors? Well, Piracicaba has become a manufacturing hub is SP. The question now is whether 9 games is enough to get out of the hole they have created for themselves.

Comercial: With the club being backed by a wealthy lawyer and construction interests, it should not be a surprise that changes are happening here as well. Geninho is now the coach and I would expect more changes to happen.

Botafogo: With less resources than the other two, Botafogo is still a substantially larger club than some above them in the standings. This should be a club that regularly challenges for or participates in National competitions.

[azantinge]

Now that 12 rounds have been completed in the first phase of the Paulistao, it has become clearer what the outcome is likely to be in the competition.

Big Four

The big four are the big four. This year, it is clearer than ever that the big clubs simply are superior to the others. The superiority of the big clubs is certain to spark even more debate over the Sao Paulo federations practice of giving a disproportionately larger share of TV revenue those four clubs. Even Portuguesa and Ponte Preta are disadvantaged.

In the end, this financial favouritism of the big four clubs is all very short-sighted and likely to further diminish the importance of the state competitions. While the big four clubs and their fans may feel it is justified, the total TV revenue pie will likely to become much smaller than it would be if the Paulistao was able to generate some broader based competition. A lesson that many football/soccer leagues (including La Liga in Spain) need to learn is that good competition among a broader base of league participants tends to generate more for all including the largest clubs. One only has to look at the NFL (an American football league in the USA) where teams like Green Bay (a city of 100,000 that is two hours by car away from any major city) can compete successfully. The NFL is a league where 10 clubs have market values exceeding $1 billion US (http://www.forbes.com/lists/2011/30/nfl ... _land.html) and that compares favourably with similar valuations of the World’s most valuable football/soccer clubs (http://www.forbes.com/2011/04/20/worlds ... slide.html). In Brazil, it is doubtful that Santos would even be the club that it is today if this unequal revenue generation existed 60 years ago because Santos would not have been able to hold on to Pele. With a strengthening economy, it’s time for big clubs in Brazil to see the potential of growing the total revenue pie rather than starving potential new competitors by being greedy with the existing pie.

Surprises among The Rest

The biggest positive surprise has to be Mogi Mirim. The club seems to have done well in assembling a team. While some of those players are under contract until the end of the year, many are essentially rentals (on loan). It is uncertain whether they will be able to compete if they are selected for participation in Serie D nationally.

Guarani is a club that still has financial issues stalking it. If it hits a financial wall, the club’s position in this tournament could tumble. I still expect that it will fall out of the top eight because of financial issues.

On the down side, XV de Piracicaba is a surprise for me. It is a surprise because the club clearly has greater resources than a number of other clubs in the competition ahead of it. While their fate appears almost certain, it does need to be highlighted that the club now has Estevao Soares as its new coach and recently signed Tiago Luis from Santos on loan, Diguinho (ex-Ceara), and Rafael Santos (ex-Atletico Paranaense). However, their hole is so deep that it is unlikely that it will be able to avoid relegation.

In the same situation is Comercial. The club is backed by wealthy interests but seems to have put too much of its fate in the hands of older players. Many on their roster would be players that would be much better 10 years earlier. Still in an effort to avoid relegation, they have hired Geninho as their coach and added Leandro (ex-Vasco, Sao Paulo, & Gremio), Ricardo Conceicao (ex-Vitoria & Santo Andre), and Alex (ex-Red Bull Salzburg). The question for this club too is whether they can make up the difference needed to climb out of the relegation.

Comercial and XV de Piracicaba have to be relegation favourites but it would not be a surprise if either made a late surge with games less frequent now that the Copa do Brasil has begun and neither participating in that tournament. At the same time, Guarani and Paulista are participants in the Copa do Brasil and may not have the necessary roster depth to compete in both and there are still seven games to go in the Paulistao.

[azantinge]

The first phase of the Paulistao is three games from completion. The big four clubs are safely at the top of the table and with the exception of Mogi Mirim, the other clubs currently in the top 8 are either in Serie A or Serie B. Of the clubs currently in the top 8, Guarani is probably the biggest surprise to me and for the reasons mentioned in earlier posts.

Of the clubs that should be in the top 8, Portuguesa has to be the shock. In fact, they still technically face a relegation possibility, albeit remote. Still, their next game is against Santos and the following two at home against the unpredictable Linense and the final round has a difficult away game in Mirassol.

As for another surprise, Piracicaba, the 17th round will show us if they are capable of climbing out of the relegation zone. They have what should be a home victory against Comercial and if Guarani can maintain its form away against Catanduvense, they should sit outside relegation for the first time in a long while. In fact, even while losing three times in the last month and winning twice, XV de Piracicaba has been playing much better. Defensively, they have only allowed four goals in the last five games and that is more impressive when you consider that two of those games were against Sao Paulo and Corinthians. There final two games (Ponte Preta and Mogi Mirim) will also not be easy but this team is now difficult to read. Catanduvense's last two games are a home game against Botafogo and a very difficult away game against Santos. The determination of who relegates may have to wait until the end of this phase's final round.

Another curious situation to watch for the remaining part of 2012 could be the plight of the club in Guaratingueta. If they relegate and things go badly financially during their Serie B season, I could see the club being targeted for acquisition by ambitious but unsuccessful clubs in the State with strong financial backers. This is possible because the club is organized as a private company and can be easily bought. And while the club has its roots in Guaratingueta, it is worthy to note that last year they played in Americana. Also, it is difficult to see how this club can compete in Serie B from a city with a population of about 100,000 and somewhat remote.

Jumping promotion rungs is not new. Comercial was mired in the A3 in 2010 but through merger with Votoraty, in the A2 at the time, was able to move up without promoting. Also technically, SC Barueri was relegated to the B level in Sao Paulo when their owners decided to acquire Gremio Prudente and bring them back to Barueri. Gremio Prudente was also organized as a private company, like Guaratingueta.

At risk of starting unfounded rumours, some clubs that might be a good fit would be:

Comercial - They've done it before and have the financial backers.
XV de Piracicaba - They are not far from Americana (where Guaratingueta played last year) and if they can motivate their sponsors (more than enough financial resources represented), a move for the club could be attractive. However, this would be complicated if Piracicaba did not relegate back to the A2 at the state level because Guaratingueta's position would have to be taken in both the State and the national competitions.
Red Bull Brasil - Only if they did not promote. There are no indications that they could motivate their title sponsor to do this but it would not be a shock if they did.

GPA Audax - Again, there is no indication that the club would even be interested in making such a move; but they are capable.

Nevertheless, I emphasize that nothing has been suggested or mentioned in the press at this point; but, the conditions seem to exist.