Two surprises in the one-game quarterfinals.
The biggest has to be Ponte Preta beating Corinthians at the Pacaembu by a score of 3-2. This can only be explained as the dangers of a one-game elimination where a highly motivated underdog can win.
The second was the loss by Palmeiras in Campinas against Guarani by the same 3-2 score. While a surprise, the possibility was probably thought about before hand by some because Palmeiras has seemed to be a little unpredictable in this tournament.
The other two quarterfinal games saw the expected winners Santos and Sao Paulo go through against Mogi Mirim and Bragantino, respectively.
This sets up one semifinal match between Santos and Sao Paulo at Morumbi Stadium. That should be a well contested match. While clearly the home field of Sao Paulo FC, maybe less so that some might think. There are probably as many Santos fans in the Greater Sao Paulo area as there is in Santos (albeit substantially fewer than SP fans). In another one-game, winner takes all, it's anyone's game.
The second semifinal is a Campinas derby between Ponte Preta and Guarani in the Brinco de Ouro da Princesa, home field of Guarani. While more was expected of Ponte Preta in the first phase, they appeared to have come alive. At the same time, Guarani is a club that has done much more than expected (by me anyway). Again this is a one game semifinal and anyone can win.
If forced to pick a winner of each of the two closely contested semifinals, I would probably go with Sao Paulo and Ponte Preta.
In the case of Sao Paulo, it is less so because of the home field advantage or a thought that Lucas Moura will outshine Neymar. The primary reason for giving the Sao Paulo the slight edge is that I think it has the deeper roster which will give it the advantage later in the game. Nevertheless, this game is very close.
In leaning toward Ponte Preta, I sense they too have a better roster than Guarani. Guarani has a group of players that are playing well, but the sense is that there are some that are playing above their norm. Home field isn't a big advantage as both clubs will likely be well represented in the stands.
In the unique consolation competition that roughly translates to a competition for the countryside title, the one-game favourites would have to be the two losing quarter-finalists, Mogi Mirim and Bragantino.