When the draw for the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers was made back in September, a fixture against Chile in Santiago would have been low down on Dunga’s list of preferred options for the opening match. The hosts are riding the crest of a wave following their maiden Copa América triumph on home soil in July. In contrast, Brazil lost to Colombia in the group phase, before meekly tumbling out of the tournament at the Quarter Final stage.
But the penalty shootout defeat to Paraguay and the subsequent fallout is far from Dunga’s only takeaway issue. The coach took the tournament seriously, considering it a chance to expel the ghosts of Belo Horizonte and the crushing 7-1 defeat suffered at the hands of a ruthless Germany in 2014. Triumph in the Copa América was meant to reinstall confidence in his players and win back the trust of the Brazilian public too. In his pre match press conference on Wednesday, Dunga was left to blithely surmise that “only through victory” will the Seleção reform broken bonds with the Brazilian public.
Yet the feeling of apathy seems to run at a much deeper level than that. Administrative incompetence in the Brazilian game showing few signs of abating and with a stifling, unattractive team heavily reliant on the slender shoulders of Neymar, the rot of apathy is more profound. Dunga’s second problem is that his captain and talisman is suspended thanks to an explosion of temper against Colombia in the Copa América. Brazil are left to negotiate one of the toughest games of the qualification process without their lynchpin Neymar Junior. Due to the commercial pressures around Brazil’s friendlies (Neymar-keting), Dunga had not experimented with a Neymar-less solution until the recent September friendlies, when he called Zenit’s Hulk in from the cold.
Hulk scored in both matches against Costa Rica and the US, but the paucity of the talent pool in attack is emphasised by the presence of 33 year old Kaká and 35 year old Santos striker Ricardo Oliveira in the squad. Hulk will provide a physical presence upfront for Dunga and this could come in very handy. Chile are a physical side but their centre halves are not the tallest. Hulk’s robustness might be invaluable. He also happens to be in sparkling form, with 6 goals for his club and 2 for his country already this season. Chile boss Jorge Sampaoli also has injuries to contend with. Midfielder Charles Aránguiz is already missing with a knee problem, whilst La Roja are left to contemplate gambles over the fitness of Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sánchez, who are carrying knocks.
Aránguiz, Vidal and Alexis are something of a holy trinity for Chile; they are the essence of Sampaoli’s high octane, hard pressing blueprint. Most of the team’s goalscoring threat exists in the latter two points of that triangle. Sampaoli will surely be tempted to take a gamble on at least one of Alexis or Vidal, but he must think carefully before doing so. Chile’s style is highly dependent on an exhaustive work rate, which means they cannot really afford to carry physically impaired players. They are a hyper active unit, greater than the sum of their parts. If one cog in the machine splutters or requires oil, the whole machine is compromised.
It’s a fascinating match up, if indeed Alexis and Vidal join Neymar on the side lines, then both teams effectively become unknown quantities, so reliant are they are on those players. On balance, Chile will regard this as an excellent chance to defeat Dunga’s Seleção, who probably would not regard a draw as a bad result all told. Both teams have functional, hard working midfields, so it’s unlikely to be a particularly fluent encounter. In September 2005, Brazil defeated Chile 5-0, as a strike force of Ronaldo and Adriano backed up by Kaká destroyed La Roja. On this occasion, perhaps with a sense of psychological mischief, captain Miranda has declared Chile as favourites. It promises to be a tight and fascinating match, if not especially easy on the eye.
Predicted Brazil lineup: 1.JEFFERSON (Botafogo), 2.FABINHO (Monaco), 3.MIRANDA (c) (Inter Milan), 4.David LUIZ (Paris Saint Germain), 6.MARCELO (Real Madrid), 5.FERNANDINHO (Manchester City), 17.LUIZ GUSTAVO (Wolfsburg), 11.OSCAR (Chelsea), 19.WILLIAN (Chelsea), 7.DOUGLAS COSTA (Bayern Munchen), 21.HULK (Zenit St. Petersburg).
Writer’s prediction: Chile 0 – 1 Brazil (Hulk).